climate change impact to the river runoff -regional study for the central asian region

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1475068107_63044.ppt -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr пов q q q - = ~ qпов e q � embed equation.3 ��� q1 w2 w1 q q1.2 q2 qmin p _1007536882.unknown windows-98 server graphic interface processing model software automated informational system aishf hydrometeorological information database figure 4. structure of modeling block system of aishf. computation and forecasting of runoff computation of the snowmelt and rain contribution computation of glacial runoff model of transformation yes glaciers? no -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 диаграмма1 93.1 88.1515384615 97.8 84.0023076923 99.9 77.67 96.4 74.3384615385 95.1 71.1415384615 92.4 66.8323076923 86 63.1865384615 81.5 61.6111538462 77.2 59.5446153846 76.6 59.2430769231 76.6 58.3869230769 78.2 57.9842307692 99.7 61.3930769231 121.7 73.2080769231 136.1 89.0338461538 232.6 126.9776923077 302.4 204.8288461538 341.2 294.6023076923 422.7 356.6265384615 458.5 390.8265384615 466.7 443.4253846154 490.8 537.2746153846 …
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324.8 397.5 30 133.2 147.7 280.9 326.9 31 116.7 122.1 238.8 268.8 32 106.6 101.8 208.4 226.2 33 97.4 85.4 182.8 185.5 34 66.3 73.4 139.7 150.6 35 60.2 63 123.2 128.2 36 55.1 55.4 110.5 111.3 ----------------------------------- ср 84.4 127.4 211.8 ----------------------------------- -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec cgcm1-tr csiro-tr echam4 hadcm2 ccsr-nies gfdl-tr lat: 42.5 lon: 62.5 тurkmenistan afganisnan tadjikistan uzbekistan kirghiziya kazakhstan 8 34% 5% 0,03% 17% 36% w 1 w 2 q 1.2 e q q пов пов q q q - = ~ q 1 q 2 p q min q automated informational system aishf hydrometeorological information database software model processing graphic interface server windows-98 …
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agaltseva research hydrometeorological institute (nigmi) uzbekistan * climate change in uzbekistan the approach to the assessment of climate changes impact on the rivers runoff on the base of climatic scenarios: problems and solutions climate change impact on water resources of aral see basin 3. the water resources monitoring basic problems * data of monitoring show: there is a tendency to increasing of the air temperature and changes of cold and hot year seasons lengths for central asia territory; climate dryness becomes more severe; 2004 year was the warmest during all period of observation there are significant variations of precipitation under their slow tendency to increasing. the complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place. climate change in uzbekistan change of annual sums of precipitation in uzbekistan 50 100 150 200 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 …
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ng various variants of social and economic development. а1, а2 – the scenarios describing a situation, when preference to global priorities, в1, в2 – regional b1. the emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. climate scenario design for uzbekistan * rise in temperature°с change of precipitation, % from norm для оценки ожидаемых изменений месячных температур воздуха и осадков были выбраны шесть gcm моделей six gcm models had been chosen for an estimation of expected changes of monthly air temperatures and precipitation вывод: усреднение ряда моделей позволяет уменьшить неопределенность сценариев conclusion: averaging of outputs by a few models allows to reduce uncertainty of scenarios climate scenario design for uzbekistan * выводы для проведения оценки воздействия изменения климата в узбекистане предлагается использовать региональные климатические сценарии, построенные в соответствии со сценариями эмиссии а2 (неблагоприятный ) и в2 (умеренный). на ближнесрочную (2030) и среднесрочную (2050) перспективы различия в ожидаемых изменениях …
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formation of contributions to runoff melting water and rain contribution the degree of the impact the expected climate changes to the river run-off in region can be assessed with help of the mathematical models of run-off forming set of the models methodical approach to the assessment of climate changes impact to the rivers runoff * system aishf an automated information system of runoff formation has been developed for practical application of the mathematical models of runoff formation * the complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place. sources of the mountain rivers feeding: a seasonal snow cover melting, historical accumulation of ice and firn in the glaciers, rains are very sensitive to change of climatic parameters seasonal snow plays a key role in the feeding of the rivers in the aral sea basin. some reduction snow supplies in …

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"climate change impact to the river runoff -regional study for the central asian region" haqida

1475068107_63044.ppt -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr пов q q q - = ~ qпов e q � embed equation.3 ��� q1 w2 w1 q q1.2 q2 qmin p _1007536882.unknown windows-98 server graphic interface processing model software automated informational system aishf hydrometeorological information database figure 4. structure of modeling block system of aishf. computation and forecasting of runoff computation of the snowmelt and rain contribution computation of glacial runoff model of transformation yes glaciers? no -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 диаграмма1 93.1 88.1515384615 97.8 84.0023076923 99.9 77.67 96.4 74.3384615385 95.1 71.1415384615 92.4 66.8323076923 86 63.1865384615 …

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