the climate of uzbekistan 2

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1487931070_65651.pptx -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec cgcm1-tr csiro-tr echam4 hadcm2 ccsr-nies gfdl-tr lat: 42.5 lon: 62.5 тurkmenistan afganisnan tadjikistan uzbekistan kirghiziya kazakhstan 8 34% 5% 0,03% 17% 36% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 мн.ср.мл. талое снеговое дождевое сток с ледников # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # 3 …

6 182.8 185.4834615385 139.7 150.6430769231 123.2 128.2142307692 110.5 111.3388461538 &a page &p приток в чарвакское вдхр приток в чарвакское вдхр (нормы) чарвак вдхр 2030 sresb2 4 37.8 55.3 93.1 88.2 5 38.5 59.3 97.8 84.0 6 39 60.9 99.9 77.7 7 37.1 59.3 96.4 74.3 8 36.6 58.5 95.1 71.1 9 35 57.4 92.4 66.8 10 32.9 53.1 86 63.2 11 31.6 49.9 81.5 61.6 12 30.1 47.1 77.2 59.5 13 30.4 46.2 76.6 59.2 14 30.1 46.5 76.6 58.4 15 30.8 47.4 78.2 58.0 16 36.8 62.9 99.7 61.4 17 43.2 78.5 121.7 73.2 18 47.8 88.3 136.1 89.0 19 75.1 157.5 232.6 127.0 20 97.5 204.9 302.4 204.8 21 113.8 227.4 341.2 294.6 22 144.3 278.4 422.7 356.6 23 160.9 297.6 458.5 390.8 24 162.6 294.1 466.7 443.4 25 187 303.8 490.8 537.3 26 191.4 280.1 471.5 570.3 27 173.2 249.7 422.9 572.5 28 161.6 211.7 373.3 485.7 …

f forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place. change of mean annual temperature in uzbekistan -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 ∆t climate change in uzbekistan 3 grid points scengen and reference stations of uzbekistan. climate scenario design for uzbekistan metodology ipcc : application of magicc: selection of the emission scenarios from ipcc sres storylines application of scengen: analysis of model’s uncertainty over the region and selection of the appropriate gcms application of statistical downscaling method: creation of archive in grid points based on observation data (area averaged anomalies are considered as best forecasts of selected gcm). construction of regression equations between data in grid points and station data. 4 for construction of regional climate scenarios it is …

year), which run down from the mountains to the plains, cross the deserts and flow into the aral sea sustainable development needs to have the rational use of the limited fresh water resources 7 the complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place. sources of the mountain rivers feeding: a seasonal snow cover melting, historical accumulation of ice and firn in the glaciers, rains are very sensitive to change of climatic parameters seasonal snow plays a key role in the feeding of the rivers in the aral sea basin. some reduction snow supplies in the basins most of all rivers is observed climate change impact on water resources of aral see basin 8 glaciological observations were run in the runoff formation zones since 1957. the glaciological observations were practically stopped during last 10-15 years. during 1957 – 1980 …

for amudarya and up to 2-5% for syrdarya by 2050 is expected climate change impact on water resources of aral see basin 11 2030 норма climate change impact on water resources of aral see basin our preliminary calculations have shown: there is tendency to decreasing of the snow supplies; glaciers continue to be reduced with rates of 0,2 % - 1 % one year; increase of the evaporation in river basins; growth in the variability of the precipitation and intensification of all factors for the years with drought with the further increase of air temperatures the river runoff decreases. rivers of amu darya river basin and small rivers are more sensitive to warming climate it is expected that runoff variability of all basins will go up. 12 выводы: таким образом, ни один из рассмотренных климатических сценариев, отражающих «потепление климата», не предполагает увеличения располагаемых водных ресурсов. ожидаемое повышение испаряемости в условиях …

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1487931070_65651.pptx -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec uktr hadcm2 gfdl-tr echam4 csiro-tr cgcm1-tr 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec cgcm1-tr csiro-tr echam4 hadcm2 ccsr-nies gfdl-tr lat: 42.5 lon: 62.5 тurkmenistan afganisnan tadjikistan uzbekistan kirghiziya kazakhstan 8 34% 5% 0,03% 17% 36% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 мн.ср.мл. талое снеговое дождевое сток с ледников # # # # # # # # # …

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