regressiya tahlili bo‘yicha taqdimot

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t x y y*x x^2 1 71 126 8946 5041 57.50694444 517.5625 141.74 -15.74 2 75 141 10575 5625 12.84027778 60.0625 145.42 -4.42 3 80 127 10160 6400 2.006944444 473.0625 150.02 -23.02 4 72 147 10584 5184 43.34027778 3.0625 142.66 4.34 5 82 155 12710 6724 11.67361111 39.0625 151.86 3.14 6 99 188 18612 9801 416.8402778 1540.5625 167.5 20.5 7 60 132 7920 3600 345.3402778 280.5625 131.62 0.38 8 81 151 12231 6561 5.840277778 5.0625 150.94 0.06 9 66 145 9570 4356 158.3402778 14.0625 137.14 7.86 10 80 155 12400 6400 2.006944444 39.0625 150.02 4.98 11 69 152 10488 4761 91.84027778 10.5625 139.9 12.1 12 108 166 17928 11664 865.3402778 297.5625 175.78 -9.78 943 1785 142124 76117 2012.916667 3280.25 1784.6 0.4 o`rtacha: 78.5833 148.75 11843.7 6343.083333 167.7430556 273.3541667 148.717 0.033333333 t*x t^2 12.49206349 49 247.7476 71 1 291,54 3.134751773 11 19.5364 150 4 582,1 18.12598425 2 529.9204 240 9 872,66 …

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glamasi aniqlanadi: a- ozod had b-regressiya koeffitsienti bunda regressiya tenglamasining parametrlarini aniqlash uchun quyidagi normal chiziqli tenglamalar tizimidan foydalanamiz: bu yerda n- to`plamning hajmi (birliklar soni) x-omil belgining haqiqiy qiymatlari y -natijaviy belgining haqiqiy qiymatlari shunday qilib korrelatsion bog`lanish regressiyasining to`g`ri chiziqli tenglamasini quyidagi ko`rinishda yozish mumkin: yuqoridagi tenglamadan a va b parametrlarni hisoblasak ular: a=76.42 b=0,92 demak regressiya tenglamasi: y=76.42+0,92x ushbu regresssiya tengglamasidan foydalanib y ning hisoblangan qiymatlarini topamiz. regressiya tenglamasida x- omil belgi oldidagi b koeffitsient iqtisodiy taxlil uchun katta ahamiyatga ega u regressiya koeffitsienti deb ataladi va x-omilning samaradorligini ko`rasatadi.omil bir birlikka oshganda natija o`rtacha qancha miqdorga oshishini ifodalaydi. 2)to`g`ri chiziqli bog`lanishning zichlik darajasi korrelasiyya koeffitsienti bilan baholanadi: korellasiya koeffitsienti -1:1 oralig`ida yotadi musbat ishora to`g`ri bog`lanish, manfiy ishora teskari bog`lanishni ifodalaydi.chiziqli korellatsiya koeffitsientini hisoblash formulasi quyidagicha: bu yerda va mos ravishdsa x va y o`zgaruvchilarning o`rtacha kvadratik chetlanishidir va ulart quyidagi formulalar bilan hisoblanadi: 154.925/(12.95*16.533)=0.72 12.95 …

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idan necha foizga o`zgarishini ko`rsatadi: *78.58/148.75=0.48 5)korrelasiya koeffitsientining kvadrati determinatsiya koefitsienti deb ataladi va y natijaviy belgi umumiy o`zgaruvchanligining qaysi qismi o`rganilayotgan omil x xissasiga to`g`ri kelishini ko`rsatadi. =0,52 determinatsiya koeffitsienti d=0.52 bo`lib natijaviy ko`rsatkich (y) 52% ga modelga kiritilgan omillarga bog`liqligini ko`rsatmoqda. 6) f-test o`tkazish- regressiya tenglamasi sifatini baholash –regressiya tenglamasi va bog`lanish zichligi ko`rsatkichining statistik mohiyatsizligi to`g`risidagi h0 gipotezani tekshirishdan iborat. buning uchun fisherning-f mezoning haqiqiy fhaqi va kiritik (jadvaldagi) fjadv qiymatlari solishtiriladi. bunda n-to`plam birliklari soni m-x o`zgaruvchilarning parametrlari soni 1703.75/(1574.93/10)=10.81 agar fxisob > fjadval bo`lsa k1= n – 1, k2= n – m bu yerda k1=11 k2 =11 va buni jadvaldan ko`radigan bo`lsak: 10,81>4,47 biz hisoblagan model adekvat. erkinlik darajasida ekonometrik model o`rganilayotgan jarayonga adekvat yani mos keladi deb aytiladi. 7) regressiya va korelasiya koeffitsientlaring mohiyatliligini studentning t-mezoni yordamida baholash ularning qiymatlarini tasodifiy x hatolik kattaligi bilan solishtirish yo`li orqali amalga oshiriladi: 2.57 3.42 3.27 bu …

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nishidagi ekonometrik modeldagi va parametrlarni topish uchun quyidagi normal tenglamalar sistemasidan foydalanamiz: 281/286=0.98 4765/66=72.2 x=72.2+0,98t trend ekonometrik modeliga ega bo`lamiz.va yuqoridagi y=76.42+0,92x regresiya tenglamasidan foydalanib keying 5 yillik prognozni amalga oshiramiz. t x=72.2+0,98t y=76,42+0,92x 13 84.94 154.5648 14 85.92 155.4664 15 86.9 156.368 16 87.88 157.2696 17 88.86 158.1712 jami; 75 434.5 781.84 o`rtacha; 15 86.9 156.368 image6.png image7.png image8.png image9.png image10.png image11.png image12.png image13.png image14.png image15.png image16.wmf oleobject1.bin image17.png image18.png image19.png image20.png image21.png image22.wmf oleobject2.bin image23.png image24.png image25.wmf oleobject3.bin image26.png image27.wmf oleobject4.bin image28.wmf oleobject5.bin image29.png image30.wmf oleobject6.bin image31.wmf oleobject7.bin image32.png image33.png image34.png image35.wmf oleobject8.bin image36.wmf oleobject9.bin image1.png image37.wmf oleobject10.bin image38.wmf oleobject11.bin image39.wmf oleobject12.bin image40.wmf oleobject13.bin image41.png image42.wmf image2.png oleobject14.bin image43.wmf oleobject15.bin image44.png image45.wmf oleobject16.bin image46.wmf oleobject17.bin image47.wmf oleobject18.bin image3.png image4.png image5.png 72 , 0 53 , 16 * 94 , 12 75 , 100 * 58 , 30 67 , 3235 = - = × × - × = …

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9 . 9 92 , 2012 * 12 13237 * 10 92 , 1574 2 2 2 2 = = × - - = å - å å x x x n n y y m x a ) 22 , 0 10 52 , 0 1 2 1 2 = - = - - = n r m xy r xy 0 b 1 b î í ì = × + × = × + × 2526 650 78 367 78 12 1 0 1 0 b b b b 98 . 0 1 = b 56 , 290 0 = b

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t x y y*x x^2 1 71 126 8946 5041 57.50694444 517.5625 141.74 -15.74 2 75 141 10575 5625 12.84027778 60.0625 145.42 -4.42 3 80 127 10160 6400 2.006944444 473.0625 150.02 -23.02 4 72 147 10584 5184 43.34027778 3.0625 142.66 4.34 5 82 155 12710 6724 11.67361111 39.0625 151.86 3.14 6 99 188 18612 9801 416.8402778 1540.5625 167.5 20.5 7 60 132 7920 3600 345.3402778 280.5625 131.62 0.38 8 81 151 12231 6561 5.840277778 5.0625 150.94 0.06 9 66 145 9570 4356 158.3402778 14.0625 137.14 7.86 10 80 155 12400 6400 2.006944444 39.0625 150.02 4.98 11 69 152 10488 4761 91.84027778 10.5625 139.9 12.1 12 108 166 17928 11664 865.3402778 297.5625 175.78 -9.78 943 1785 142124 76117 2012.916667 3280.25 1784.6 …

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