teila-vedjer modeli

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mavsumiylikni hisobga olinadigan trend va mavsumiylik additiv bo‘lgan teila-vedjer modeli. 2-misol. surilgan o‘rta qiymat usuli bilan vaqt qatorini tashkil qiluvchilariga ajratish mavzusidagi misolni mavsumiylik bor deb faraz qilib, holt modelining teyla-veydjer varianti – mavsumiylik va trend additiv modelida uchta silliqlash parametri ishlatamiz va quyidagi additiv modeliga qaraymiz. (1) bu yerda va - mos ravishda vaqt qatori silliqligi, trend va mavsumiylik. lar silliqlash parametrlari. bashorat uchun quyidagi formula ishlatiladi . bu yerda - mavsumiylik davri. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 6,0 4,4 5,0 9,0 7,2 4,8 6,0 10,0 8,0 5,6 6,4 11,0 9,0 6,6 7,0 10,8 dastlabki silliqlik va tanlab olishimiz kerak. agar vaqt qatori – chiziqli trendli bo‘lsa, u holda vaqt qatori uchun kku bilan dastlab chiziqli trend topilib uchun ni olish va mavsumiylik uchun esa ni olish tavsiya qilinadi. r=0,495429, y=5,365+0.228t , silliqlash parametrlari , va bo‘lsin, u …

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mavsumiylikni hisobga olinadigan trend va mavsumiylik additiv bo‘lgan teila-vedjer modeli. 2-misol. surilgan o‘rta qiymat usuli bilan vaqt qatorini tashkil qiluvchilariga ajratish mavzusidagi misolni mavsumiylik bor deb faraz qilib, holt modelining teyla-veydjer varianti – mavsumiylik va trend additiv modelida uchta silliqlash parametri ishlatamiz va quyidagi additiv modeliga qaraymiz. (1) bu yerda va - mos ravishda vaqt qatori silliqligi, trend va mavsumiylik. lar silliqlash parametrlari. bashorat uchun quyidagi formula ishlatiladi . bu yerda - mavsumiylik davri. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 6,0 4,4 5,0 9,0 7,2 4,8 6,0 10,0 8,0 5,6 6,4 11,0 9,0 6,6 7,0 10,8 dastlabki silliqlik va tanlab olishimiz kerak. agar vaqt qatori – chiziqli trendli bo‘lsa, u …

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