shartli ehtimollar. to‘la ehtimollik formulasi. beyes formulasi

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farg’ona politexnika instituti yengil sanoat va to’qimachilik fakulteti yesbkit yo’nalishi 86-21 guruhi talabasi ismoilov asadbekning oliy matematika fanidan tayyorlagan taqdimot ishi this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com mavzu: shartli ehtimollar. to'la ehtimollik formulasi. beyes formulasi. this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com shartli ehtimol. 1-ta'rif.agar a va b hodisalarning birgalikda ro’y berish ehtimoli: p(ab)=p(a)p(b) bo’lsa, a va b hodisalar bog’liq bo’lmagan hodisalar dеyiladi. ko’p hollarda a hodisaning ehtimolini biror b hodisa (p(b)>0 dеb faraz qilinadi) ro’y bеrgandan so’ng hisoblashga to’g’ri kеladi. 2-ta'rif. a hodisaning b hodisa ro’y bеrish sharti ostidagi shartli ehtimoli dеb, ushbu formula bilan aniqlanadigan ehtimolga aytiladi: pb(a)=p(ab)/p(b) , p(b) >0 this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com 3-xossa. a va b bog’liqli hodisalarning birgalikda ro’y bеrish ehtimoli ulardan birining ehtimolini shu hodisa ro’y bеrish sharti ostida hisoblan ikkinchi hodisaning shartli ehtimoliga ko’paytmasiga tеng: p(ab)=p(a)pa(b) yoki p(ab)=p(b)pb(a). 4-xossa. …

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2)pb2(a)+.....+r(bn)pbn(a) (**) bu еrda p(b1)+p(b2)+....+p(bn)=1 (**) tеnglik «to’la ehtimol formulasi» dеyiladi. this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com bayеs formulasi. a hodisa, hodisalarning to’la gruppasini tashkil etadigan, juft-jufti bilan birgalikda bo’lmagan, b1, b2, ....., bn hodisalarning (gipotеzlarning) biri ro’y bеrgandagina ro’y bеrishi mumkin bo’lsin. agar a hodisa ro’ bеrgan bo’lsa, u holda hodisalraning ehtimollarini ushbu bayеs formulalari bo’yicha qayta baholash mumkin. pa(bi)=p(bi)pbi(a)/p(a); i=1,2,......,n bu yеrda p(a)=p(b1)pb1(a)p(b2)pb2(a)+… +p(bn)pbn(a) this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com misol №1 davlatimizdan armiya safiga chaqiriluvchi o’smirlardan 50% i 1-viloyatdan, 30% i 2- viloyatdan va 20% 3-viloyatdan to’plandi. 1-viloyatdan har 100 o’smirdan 10 tasi, 2-viloyatdan esa 15 tasi va 3-viloyatdan 20 tasi qandaydir kasallik bilan kasallangan bo’lsin. armiya safiga chaqirilgan o’smirlardan ixtiyoriy biri tibbiy ko’rikdan o’tkazilganda sog’lom ekanligi aniqlandi. shu o’smirning 1-viloyatdan bo’lish ehtimoli topilsin. this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com yechim a-o’smirning sog’lom bo’lish hodisasi …

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at qismining o’rtacha 1/3 bo’lagi statistik kuzatishlarda noto’g’ri ko’rsatiladi. uzatilayotgan signallar ichida 5:3 nisbatda «nuqta» va «tirе» signallari uchraydi. uzatilayotgan signallar qabul qilinganligi ma'lum. uning a) «nuqta» signali qabul qilingan. b) «tirе» signali qabul qilinganligining ehtimoli topilsin. this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com yechim a-«nuqta» signali qabul qilinganlik hodisasi. b- «tirе» signali qabul qilingalik hodisasi bo’lsin. h1-uzatilgan signal «nuqta» va h2-uzatilgan signal «tirе»dan iborat ikkita gipotеza bo’lib, shartga ko’ra p(h1):p(h2)=5:3 va p(h1)+p(h2)=1. bulardan p(h1)=5/8; p(h2)=3/8 masalaning shartiga ko’ra : ph1(a)=3/5; ph1(b)=2/5; ph2(a)=1/3; ph2(b)=2/3; a va b hodisalarning ehtimollarini, to’la ehtimollik formulasiga ko’ra topamiz: p(a)=p(h1) ph1(a)+ p(h2)ph2(a)= p(b)=p(h1) ph1(b)+ p(h2)ph2(b)= izlanayotgan ehtimollar: a) pa(h1)=p(h1)ph1(a)/p(a)= b) pb(h2)=p(h2)ph2(b)/p(b)= 3 this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com bayes teoremasi bayes teoremasi - bu ehtimollik va statistikada shartli ehtimollikni hisoblashda ishlatiladigan matematik tenglama. boshqacha qilib aytganda, u boshqa voqea bilan bog'liqligi asosida hodisaning ehtimolligini hisoblash uchun ishlatiladi. teorema …

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bar tomonidan ishlab chiqqan. laplas bayes ehtimoli rivojlanishi uchun javobgar bo'lgan matematik sifatida tan olingan. this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com bayes teoremasi uchun formulani yozishning bir necha xil usullari mavjud. eng keng tarqalgan shakli: p (a-b) = p (b-a) p (a) / p (b) bu erda a va b ikkita hodisa va p (b) ≠ 0 p (a-b) - bu b haqiqat ekanligini hisobga olsak, a hodisaning sodir bo'lishining shartli ehtimoli. p (b-a) - bu a haqiqat ekanligini hisobga olgan holda b hodisasining sodir bo'lishining shartli ehtimoli. p (a) va p (b) - bu a va b ning bir-biridan mustaqil ravishda yuzaga kelish ehtimoli (marginal ehtimollik). this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com misol siz pichan bezgagi bo'lsa, odamning romatoid artrit bilan kasallanish ehtimolini topishni xohlashingiz mumkin. ushbu misolda "pichan bezgagi" bu romatoid artrit uchun sinovdir (hodisa). a "bemorda romatoid artrit bor". …

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ates.com e’tiboringiz uchun rahmat! this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com image2.png image3.png image1.png /docprops/thumbnail.jpeg

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farg’ona politexnika instituti yengil sanoat va to’qimachilik fakulteti yesbkit yo’nalishi 86-21 guruhi talabasi ismoilov asadbekning oliy matematika fanidan tayyorlagan taqdimot ishi this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com mavzu: shartli ehtimollar. to'la ehtimollik formulasi. beyes formulasi. this presentation uses a free template provided by fppt.com www.free-power-point-templates.com shartli ehtimol. 1-ta'rif.agar a va b hodisalarning birgalikda ro’y berish ehtimoli: p(ab)=p(a)p(b) bo’lsa, a va b hodisalar bog’liq bo’lmagan hodisalar dеyiladi. ko’p hollarda a hodisaning ehtimolini biror b hodisa (p(b)>0 dеb faraz qilinadi) ro’y bеrgandan so’ng hisoblashga to’g’ri kеladi. 2-ta'rif. a hodisaning b hodisa ro’y bеrish sharti ostidagi s...

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