daniel kahneman-thinking, fast and slow

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in memory of amos tversky contents introduction part i. two systems 1. the characters of the story 2. attention and effort 3. the lazy controller 4. the associative machine 5. cognitive ease 6. norms, surprises, and causes 7. a machine for jumping to conclusions 8. how judgments happen 9. answering an easier question part ii. heuristics and biases 10. the law of small numbers 11. anchors 12. the science of availability 13. availability, emotion, and risk 14. tom w’s specialty 15. linda: less is more 16. causes trump statistics 17. regression to the mean 18. taming intuitive predictions part iii. overconfidence 19. the illusion of understanding 20. the illusion of validity 21. intuitions vs. formulas 22. expert intuition: when can we trust it? 23. the outside view 24. the engine of capitalism part iv. choices 25. bernoulli’s errors 26. prospect theory 27. the endowment effect 28. bad events 29. the …

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ously anticipate how friends and colleagues will evaluate our choices; the quality and content of these anticipated judgments therefore matters. the expectation of intelligent gossip is a powerful motive for serious self-criticism, more powerful than new year resolutions to improve one’s decision making at work and at home. to be a good diagnostician, a physician needs to acquire a large set of labels for diseases, each of which binds an idea of the illness and its symptoms, possible antecedents and causes, possible developments and consequences, and possible interventions to cure or mitigate the illness. learning medicine consists in part of learning the language of medicine. a deeper understanding of judgments and choices also requires a richer vocabulary than is available in everyday language. the hope for informed gossip is that there are distinctive patterns in the errors people make. systematic errors are known as biases, and they recur predictably in …

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, intuitions, and many decisions goes on in silence in our mind. much of the discussion in this book is about biases of intuition. however, the focus on error does not denigrate human intelligence, any more than the attention to diseases in medical texts denies good health. most of us are healthy most of the time, and most of our judgments and actions are appropriate most of the time. as we navigate our lives, we normally allow ourselves to be guided by impressions and feelings, and the confidence we have in our intuitive beliefs and preferences is usually justified. but not always. we are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are. so this is my aim for watercooler conversations: improve the ability to identify and understand errors of judgment and choice, in others and eventually in …

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f michigan that sought to answer this question: are people good intuitive statisticians? we already knew that people are good intuitive grammarians: at age four a child effortlessly conforms to the rules of grammar as she speaks, although she has no idea that such rules exist. do people have a similar intuitive feel for the basic principles of statistics? amos reported that the answer was a qualified yes. we had a lively debate in the seminar and ultimately concluded that a qualified no was a better answer. amos and i enjoyed the exchange and concluded that intuitive statistics was an interesting topic and that it would be fun to explore it together. that friday we met for lunch at café rimon, the favorite hangout of bohemians and professors in jerusalem, and planned a study of the statistical intuitions of sophisticated researchers. we had concluded in the seminar that our own …

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ians. while writing the article that reported these findings, amos and i discovered that we enjoyed working together. amos was always very funny, and in his presence i became funny as well, so we spent hours of solid work in continuous amusement. the pleasure we found in working together made us exceptionally patient; it is much easier to strive for perfection when you are never bored. perhaps most important, we checked our critical weapons at the door. both amos and i were critical and argumentative, he even more than i, but during the years of our collaboration neither of us ever rejected out of hand anything the other said. indeed, one of the great joys i found in the collaboration was that amos frequently saw the point of my vague ideas much more clearly than i did. amos was the more logical thinker, with an orientation to theory and an …

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in memory of amos tversky contents introduction part i. two systems 1. the characters of the story 2. attention and effort 3. the lazy controller 4. the associative machine 5. cognitive ease 6. norms, surprises, and causes 7. a machine for jumping to conclusions 8. how judgments happen 9. answering an easier question part ii. heuristics and biases 10. the law of small numbers 11. anchors 12. the science of availability 13. availability, emotion, and risk 14. tom w’s specialty 15. linda: less is more 16. causes trump statistics 17. regression to the mean 18. taming intuitive predictions part iii. overconfidence 19. the illusion of understanding 20. the illusion of validity 21. intuitions vs. formulas 22. expert intuition: when can …

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